Is Bitcoin’s Rally Sustainable? Historical Data Reveals Truth!

What Is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, a form of cryptocurrency, created and held electronically. It operates independently of a central bank and uses encryption techniques to regulate the generation of units and verify the transfer of funds.


Bitcoin has had an extremely strong rally of 90% from the lows back in November of 2022, and now we’re sitting in a place where everyone is questioning whether we are heading to new lows because this is one big massive fake out. Well, in this video, I’m going to explain to you exactly why this is not a fakeout and what is likely to happen based on historical data. And we’re also going to talk about why that historical data is even something that you need to pay attention to. So, first and foremost, let’s look at some previous rallies. Right, let’s go ahead and look at the last rally, which was 2018. Again, we said that it was eerily similar to the last rally where we had the final sell-off, then we created this kind of we had the little dip here, then we started to have the U-shape really strong rally, and then we created these flag patterns where we just keep heading up.

And even though there’s divergence on the chart, you continue to see Bitcoin rally throughout that all the way through the quarter. So, this is about 195 days from the low to the high, but it was really about 90 days from once it started its first major green candle. So, the 337% rally is actually about 340%. Okay, but then what happened, right? And we’re going to look at liquidity cycles here in a second too, but you can see that the drawdown was 72% from the high. So, we came up 300% and then retracted all the way back about 72%, which was crazy. But if you notice, actually from the lows here, right, did we go past that low? No, we did not go past that low. So, this was, in fact, the bottom.

I’m going to show you how eerily similar these cycles repeat here in just one moment. It is honestly pretty scary, almost how similar these cycles are. So, we’ll see. You’ve got one other opportunity to buy when Bitcoin does dip after its rally, but again, it is not lower than its original rally. Let’s go ahead and look at the previous cycle before that, and honestly, this is the only other cycle that we can really study because back in like 2011, 12, it doesn’t make sense because Bitcoin’s flying from, you know, a dollar to a couple hundred. So, it doesn’t make sense to look at something that new.

But if we’re looking at this, right, in 2015, we come down to the bottom here, right? This is the bottom wick from 15. So, we kind of had like two highs, almost similar to what happened in 2021, 2022, where we had the high, right? Then we sold off when trying to ban all the miners, and then we came up to new highs. It wasn’t that dramatic, but again, we had a kind of a double top situation in 2021 as well.

Then we had the sell-off, right? This big candle here. We had a 93% rally, which is just above what we’ve had thus far on the rally. And then guess what happened? We had another sell-off and correction. Let’s actually see what this correction was from the highs to just about this low right here. This is about a 37% correction. But again, if you look at what we had here, we did not have new lower lows. So, again, this low was the actual low for the cycle, and then this next pivot low was higher than the previous low, and then you never go beneath that again. You never go beneath that low again.

You can see it just, we just head into the next bull market because then we had the halving cycle right in here in April, and then you head to the highs. And then again, 2018 played out, right? We had the sell-off, we had this pivot low that we just discussed, we had a higher low right here after the 72% sell-off from a 340% rally. And then guess what happened after that? 

We had the halving, and then bam, we came right into 2021. All right, so another thing I want to draw some really big attention to because a lot of crypto guys don’t pay attention to this, I look at many different sectors. I look at different assets. I really understand what’s going on in the macro economy because I know…

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Jeff Sekinger

Founder & CEO, Nurp LLC

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